April 19, 2024
Over in bond land, Treasury yields are lower before the opening bell Friday following Israel’s strike on Iran and as investors continue digesting this week’s comments from various Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers, who mentioned that the central bank requires more confidence about inflation easing to the Fed’s target before considering interest rate cuts. The yield on the 10-year note is decreasing six basis points (0.06%) to 4.57%, while the 30-year bond yield is also falling six basis points (0.06%) to 4.67%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is down five basis points (0.05%) to 4.94%.
Treasury yields were higher on Thursday, as investors evaluated March’s existing home sales, which experienced its most significant drop in over a year. The yield on the 10-year note was up four basis points (0.04%) to 4.63%, while the 30-year bond yield rose three basis points (0.03%) to 4.73%. The yield on the two-year note increased six basis points (0.06%) to 4.99%.
On the data front Thursday, initial jobless claims for the week ending April 13 were 212,000, unchanged from the prior week’s revised reading, while continuing claims for the week ending April 6 registered 1.81 million, roughly unchanged from the prior week’s revised reading. The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic Index decreased 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) in March versus the prior month’s revised increase of 0.2%, which had snaped a 23-month streak of declines. Existing home sales for March were an annualized 4.2 million units, lower than the prior month’s 4.4 million units, corresponding to decrease of 4.3% MoM in March versus the prior month’s increase of 9.5%. The Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey for April was released, with the diffusion index for current general activity recording 15.5 versus the prior month’s 3.2.
In the central bank space, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to speak today, while the Fed’s April 2024 financial stability report is also due today.
Mortgage rates were higher in the latest week. For the week ending April 18, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was up 22 basis points (0.22%) at 7.10%, versus 6.39% a year ago. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate increased 23 basis points (0.23%) to 6.39%, versus 5.76% a year ago.
Municipal Market Commentary
The Bloomberg 30-day visible supply fell $1.216 billion to $8.857 billion on Thursday, below the 12-month average of $9.093 billion.
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