April 26, 2024
Over in bond land, Treasury yields are mostly lower before the opening bell Friday ahead of March’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator, personal income, and personal spending data releases. The yield on the 10-year note is decreasing one basis point (0.01%) to 4.69%, while the 30-year bond yield is also falling one basis point (0.01%) to 4.80%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is unchanged at 5.00%.
Treasury yields were higher on Thursday, as investors digested the initial reading for the first quarter’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which saw GDP increase less-than-expected while the quarterly core PCE Price Index rose above expectations and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target. The yield on the 10-year note was up six basis points (0.06%) to 4.70%, while the 30-year bond yield rose four basis points (0.04%) to 4.81%. The yield on the two-year note increased seven basis points (0.07%) to 5.00%.
On the data front today, personal income is projected to rise 0.5% in March, versus the prior month’s increase of 0.3%, while March’s personal spending is expected to rise 0.6% versus the prior month’s 0.8%. March’s PCE deflator is anticipated to increase 0.3% month-over-month (MoM), similar to the prior month’s change, and increase 2.6% year-over-year (YoY), versus the previous month’s advance of 2.5%. Meanwhile, March’s PCE core deflator, which excludes the more volatile energy and food components, is projected to rise 0.3% MoM, similar to the prior month’s change, and rise 2.7% YoY versus the prior month’s increase of 2.8%.
Mortgage rates were higher in the latest week. For the week ending April 25, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was up seven basis points (0.07%) at 7.17%, versus 6.43% a year ago. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate increased five basis points (0.05%) to 6.44%, versus 5.71% a year ago.
Municipal Market Commentary
The Bloomberg 30-day visible supply fell $4.446 billion to $9.981 billion on Thursday, above the 12-month average of $9.097 billion.
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