Bond Market Commentary

Over in bond land, Treasury yields are higher before the opening bell Monday as investors are monitoring developments in U.S. trade discussions. Investors are also looking forward to this week’s key releases, including the advance reading of first-quarter gross domestic product, March’s personal consumption data, and the April jobs report. As of 6:48 AM ET, the yield on the 10-year note is rising three basis points (0.03%) to 4.27%, while the 30-year bond yield is increasing two basis points (0.02%) to 4.72%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is up two basis points (0.02%) to 3.77%.

Treasury yields were lower on Friday as the finalized reading of April consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan was unexpectedly revised higher and the measure of one-year inflation expectations was revised lower, though were still lower and higher than the prior month’s readings, respectively. The yield on the 10-year note was down seven basis points (0.07%) to 4.24%, while the 30-year bond yield fell eight basis points (0.08%) to 4.70%. The yield on the two-year note decreased five basis points (0.05%) to 3.75%.

On the data front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Dallas’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for April will be released, with the general business activity index forecasted to come in at negative 14.1, up from the prior month’s negative 16.3.

In the central bank space, Fed members are in their communications blackout period ahead of the May 7 meeting.

Mortgage rates were lower in the latest week. For the week ending April 24, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was down two basis points (0.02%) to 6.81%, versus 7.17% a year ago. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate decreased nine basis points (0.09%) to 5.94%, versus 6.44% a year ago.

The Bloomberg 30-day visible supply rose $1.478 billion to $17.239 billion on Friday, compared to the 12-month average of $12.804 billion.

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