Bond Market Commentary

Over in bond land, Treasury yields are lower before the opening bell Tuesday as investors are awaiting March manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and February job openings data. Markets are also awaiting tomorrow’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs. As of 6:53 AM ET, the yield on the 10-year note is decreasing four basis points (0.04%) to 4.17%, while the 30-year bond yield is also falling four basis points (0.04%) to 4.53%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is down two basis points (0.02%) to 3.86%.

Treasury yields were lower on Monday as the Market News International’s Chicago PMI for March unexpectedly rose to 47.6. The Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Dallas Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey’s general business activity index for March unexpectedly declined. The yield on the 10-year note was down four basis points (0.04%) to 4.21%, while the 30-year bond yield fell six basis points (0.06%) to 4.57%. The yield on the two-year note decreased three basis points (0.03%) to 3.88%.

On the data front, the finalized reading of S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI for March is expected to come in at 49.9, slightly up from the previous reading of 49.8. February construction spending is expected to have increased 0.3% month-over-month (MOM), versus the prior month’s decrease of 0.2%. The February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is forecasted to show job openings of 7.66 million, versus the prior month’s 7.74 million. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI and prices paid component for March are expected to come in at 49.5 and 64.6, respectively, versus the prior month’s reading of 50.3 and 62.4, respectively. The Dallas Fed will release their Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

In the auction space, the U.S. Treasury is set to issue $70 billion in six-week bills and $50 billion in 14-day cash management bills.

In the central bank space, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin is scheduled to speak today.

None at this time.

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