Opening Comment — Tuesday, March 25, 2025
DJIA: 42,583.32, up 597.97
S&P 500: 5,767.57, up 100.01
NASDAQ: 18,188.59, up 404.54
Stocks flat ahead of housing market data
Stock futures are mostly unchanged Tuesday morning as investors are looking forward to today’s home price, consumer confidence, and new home sales data. As of 7:13 AM ET, the Dow is little changed, while the S&P 500 is up 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 is little changed relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Monday as the preliminary reading of S&P Global’s March manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) unexpectedly fell into contractionary territory, while the services and composite PMIs rose slightly, remaining in expansionary territory. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago’s National Activity Index for February unexpectedly rose to 0.18, up from the prior month’s revised negative 0.08. The Dow was up 1.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 2.3%. The S&P 500 increased 1.8% with 10 of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Consumer Discretionary sector was the top performer, rising 4.1%, while the Utilities sector was the bottom performer, ending the day little changed.
On the data front, the Philadelphia Fed’s Non-Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for March will be released today. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month (MOM) in January, compared to the prior month’s 0.4% increase. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for January is expected to rise 0.4% MOM and 4.8% year-over-year (YOY), versus the prior month’s increases of 0.52% and 4.48%, respectively. New home sales are projected to have been at an annualized 680,000 pace in February versus the prior month’s 657,000 pace, corresponding to a 3.5% MOM increase versus the prior month’s decrease of 10.5%. The Conference Board’s reading of March consumer confidence is projected to come in at 94.0 versus the prior month’s 98.3. The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey for March will be released today, with the composite manufacturing index expected to fall to 1.0 from the prior month’s 6.0. Meanwhile, the finalized reading of building permits for February are projected to come in roughly unchanged at an annualized pace of 1.46 million.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index for March came in line with expectations, rising from the prior month’s reading.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed as South Korea’s consumer confidence fell in March and the country’s department store sales dropped by 3.6% YOY in February. Meanwhile, Japan’s nationwide department sales showed a decrease of 1.5% YOY in February.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is slightly lower ahead of today’s data on U.S. consumer confidence, which has declined materially since November.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.6% higher at $69.52/barrel as investors balanced concerns over President Donald Trump’s tariffs affecting demand against tighter sanctions reducing supply.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.4% higher at $3,028.40/ounce following a weakening dollar.