Opening Comment — Friday, June 20, 2025
DJIA: 42,171.66, down 44.14
S&P 500: 5,980.87, down 1.85
NASDAQ: 19,546.27, up 25.18
Stocks lower ahead to end out week
Stock futures are lower Friday morning as the market awaits developments in the Israel-Iran conflict, with President Donald Trump stating he will make his decision on U.S. involvement within the next two weeks depending on progress in negotiations. Investors are also looking forward to today’s economic releases, including updates on the leading index. As of 7:14 AM ET, the Dow is decreasing 0.2%, while the S&P 500 is down 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 is also falling 0.1% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were little changed on Wednesday as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) opted to maintain its key interest rate steady within the 4.25% to 4.5% range and Fed members’ median expectation for year-end rates still showed that two 25 basis point (0.25%) cuts were expected. Meanwhile, May’s housing starts declined significantly more than projected and a preliminary reading of building permits declined contrary to expectations for a flatline. Both initial jobless claims and continuing claims fell. The Dow was down 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1%. The S&P 500 was little changed with four of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Information Technology sector was the top performer, rising 0.4%, while the Energy sector was the bottom performer, falling 0.7%.
Technical analysis
For the S&P 500, as of midday Wednesday, the trend is still lower. Support should be found at the 200-day moving average (5813) and the 50-day moving average (5718). Resistance should be found at the all-time high (6144).
On the data front, the Philadelphia Fed will release their June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, with the diffusion index of current general activity forecasted to improve to negative 1.5 from the prior month’s negative 4.0. The leading index for May is forecasted to show a decline of 0.1%, versus the prior month’s decrease of 1.0%.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as the U.K.’s retail sales for May declined by 1.3% year-over-year (YOY) against expectations of an increase and registered a larger-than-expected decline of 2.7% month-over-month (MOM). Meanwhile, the country’s measure of consumer confidence ticked up in June. Germany’s May Producer Price Index (PPI) deflation decelerated more than expected MOM, while prices declined by 1.2% YOY. France’s manufacturing confidence unexpectedly fell in June.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed following Japan’s national Consumer Price Index accelerating more than expected in May on a core basis to 3.3% YOY, while the headline reading eased to 3.5% YOY. South Korea’s PPI increased by 0.3% YOY in May, easing compared to prior month’s revised 0.8% YOY increase.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is lower following a slew of central bank decisions, as the Bank of England held interest rates steady, while the central banks of Switzerland, Norway, and Sweden decided to cut their policy rates by 25 basis points (0.25%).
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.7% higher at $75.69/barrel as investors await further news on conflicts in the Middle East.
In the metals complex, gold is 1.0% lower at $3,354.50/ounce despite a weakening dollar.