Opening Comment — Monday, March 17, 2025
DJIA: 41,488.19, up 674.62
S&P 500: 5,638.94, up 117.42
NASDAQ: 17,754.09, up 451.08
Stocks lower ahead of retail sales data
Stock futures are lower Monday morning ahead of today’s data on retail sales, the New York manufacturing sector, and a gauge of homebuilder sentiment. Investors are also looking ahead to the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting concluding Wednesday where no change in the policy rate is expected, but the updated Summary of Economic Projections will be parsed for potential future moves. As of 7:14 AM ET, the Dow is decreasing 0.2%, while the S&P 500 is down 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 is also falling 0.1% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Friday as the preliminary reading of March consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan fell significantly more than expected following another increase in one-year inflation expectations, which are now at the highest level since 2022. The Dow was up 1.7%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 2.6%. The S&P 500 increased 2.1% with all 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Information Technology sector was the top performer, rising 3.0%, while the Consumer Staples sector was the bottom performer, rising just 0.3%.
On the data front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York will release March’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey, with the headline general business conditions index expected to come in at negative 2.0 from the prior month’s positive 5.2. Retail sales are expected to have increased 0.6% month-over-month (MOM) in February versus the prior month’s weather-related 0.9% decline. Business inventories are expected to have increased 0.3% MOM in January, versus the prior month’s 0.2% decrease. The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index is forecasted to remain unchanged in March from the prior reading of 42.0.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as the U.K.’s house prices increased in March.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were higher following China’s February industrial production and retail sales coming in above forecasts.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is lower ahead of this week’s central bank meetings, headlined by the Fed’s Wednesday meeting, which will be preceded by the Bank of Japan’s meeting and followed Thursday with meetings of the central banks of the U.K., Sweden, and Switzerland.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 1.1% higher at $67.89/barrel as the U.S. launched strikes on Yemen’s Houthis after Red Sea shipping assaults.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.1% higher at $3,004.00/ounce following a weakening dollar.