Opening Comment — Thursday, April 17, 2025
DJIA: 39,669.39, down 699.57
S&P 500: 5,275.70, down 120.93
NASDAQ: 16,307.16, down 516.01
Stocks mixed to end out trading week
Stock futures are mixed Thursday morning ahead of tomorrow’s trading market closure for Good Friday and as investors are looking forward to today’s economic releases, including unemployment claims and housing market data. As of 7:15 AM ET, the Dow is decreasing 1.5%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 is increasing 0.4% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were lower on Wednesday as retail sales for March rose in line with expectations while industrial production recorded a sharper-than-anticipated decline. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell highlighted inflation risks from tariffs and stated, “our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.” The Dow was down 1.7%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 3.1%. The S&P 500 decreased 2.2% with 10 of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Energy sector was the top performer, rising 0.8%, while the Information Technology sector was the bottom performer, falling 3.9%.
On the data front, housing starts are expected to have been an annualized 1.42 million in March versus the prior month’s 1.50 million, corresponding to a month-over-month (MOM) decline of 5.4% versus the prior month’s increase of 11.2%. The preliminary reading of March building permits is expected to come in at an annualized 1.45 million versus the prior month’s 1.46 million, corresponding to a MOM decline of 0.6% versus the prior month’s decline of 1.0%. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 12 are expected to come in at 225,000, slightly higher than the prior week’s 223,000, while continuing jobless claims for the week ending April 5 are projected to come in at 1.87 million, higher than the prior week’s 1.85 million. The Philadelphia Fed will release their April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, with the diffusion index of current general activity forecasted to fall to 2.2 from the prior month’s 12.5.
Across the pond, European stocks are lower in mid-day trading as Germany’s March Producer Price Index (PPI) showed more deflation than expected MOM as the year-over-year (YOY) reading unexpectedly dipped into deflationary territory.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly higher as Japan’s trade surplus narrowed in March, as both exports and imports rose less than projected. The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark seven-day repurchase rate unchanged at 2.75% in its April monetary policy decision meeting. Australia’s employment change came in lower than projected, though the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% for March.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is higher as investors are also awaiting the European Central Bank’s policy decision later this morning. Yesterday, the Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate unchanged at 2.75%.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 1.3% higher at $63.26/barrel following fresh U.S. sanctions on oil exports from Iran and a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.3% lower at $3,316.50/ounce following a strengthening dollar.