Opening Comment — Thursday, July 03, 2025
DJIA: 44,484.42, down 10.52
S&P 500: 6,227.42, up 29.41
NASDAQ: 20,393.13, up 190.24
Stocks higher ahead of jobs report
Stock futures are higher Thursday morning ahead of the June jobs report. In other key economic data, watch for the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM’s) services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for June, along with the trade balance and factory orders for May. Investors will also be looking for further progress on the reconciliation bill which is moving toward a final vote in the House. As of 7:15 AM ET, the Dow and the S&P 500 Index are both rising 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 is also increasing 0.1% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were mostly higher on Wednesday as the ADP Employment Change Report showed private nonfarm payroll gains for June unexpectedly declining. The Dow was little changed, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%. The S&P 500 increased 0.5% with seven of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Energy sector was the top performer, rising 1.7%, while the Health Care sector was the bottom performer, falling 1.0%.
Technical analysis
As of midday Wednesday, the S&P 500 is back in an uptrend with the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average. Support should be at the 50-day moving average (5867), followed by 200-day moving average (5839). Resistance is hard to pinpoint with the S&P 500 at all-time highs, but it’s possible round numbers pose psychological challenges (6500, 7000 etc.).
On the data front, June’s nonfarm payrolls are expected to expand by 106,000 versus the prior month’s 139,000, while manufacturing payrolls are projected to decline by 2,000 compared to the prior month’s decrease of 8,000. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.3% from the prior month’s 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate is expected to remain steady at 62.4%. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month (MOM) and 3.8% year-over-year (YOY) for June, compared to the prior month’s increases of 0.4% and 3.9%, respectively. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28 are expected to come in at 241,000, slightly higher than the prior week’s 236,000, while continuing claims are expected to come in at 1.96 million for the week ending June 21, down from the prior week’s 1.97 million. The U.S. trade deficit is expected to widen in May to $71 billion from the prior month’s $61.6 billion. S&P Global’s finalized services and composite PMIs for June are expected to come in at 53.1 and 52.8, respectively, both unchanged from the prior reading. Meanwhile, ISM’s June services PMI and the prices paid component are expected to register 50.6 and 68.9, respectively, versus the prior month’s 49.9 and 68.7, respectively. May’s factory orders are expected to have increased 8.2% MOM versus the prior month’s decrease of 3.7%. Meanwhile, May’s finalized durable goods orders are expected to show a 16.4% MOM increase, unchanged from the prior reading.
Across the pond, European stocks are mixed in mid-day trading as the finalized June composite and services PMIs for the eurozone and the U.K. came in higher than the preliminary readings, advancing further into expansionary territory. Meanwhile, the finalized June services PMIs for France and Germany were revised slightly higher, though still showed the respective services sectors in contractionary territory.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed as the finalized June composite and services PMIs from S&P Global for Australia and Japan were revised slightly higher, moving further into expansionary territory. China’s private June composite PMI from Caixin rose into expansionary territory, while the private services PMI fell slightly more than expected, though remained in expansionary territory. Australia’s trade surplus narrowed more than expected in May.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is little changed ahead of today’s U.S. jobs report.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.2% lower at $67.29/barrel following an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.1% higher at $3,361.30/ounce.