Opening Comment — Thursday, April 09, 2026
DJIA: 47,909.92, up 1325.46
S&P 500: 6,782.81, up 165.96
NASDAQ: 22,634.99, up 617.14
Stocks lower before PCE data
Stock futures are lower Thursday morning as uncertainty about the Iran war persists, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed following claims of ceasefire violations. Investors are also looking ahead to today’s economic releases, including February’s personal income, personal spending, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator (the Federal Reserve’s [Fed’s] preferred gauge of inflation), and unemployment claims data. As of 7:16 AM ET, the Dow is decreasing 0.5%, while the S&P 500 is down 0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 0.3% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Wednesday following optimism over the announced U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Meanwhile, the Fed’s March 18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes showed heightened concern over inflationary pressures, while also reflecting concerns over potential weakness in the labor market. The Dow was up 2.9%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 2.8%. The S&P 500 increased 2.5% with 10 of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Industrials sector was the top performer, rising 3.8%, while the Energy sector was the bottom performer, falling 3.7%.
On the data front, personal income is expected to have increased 0.3% month-over-month (MOM) in February, versus the prior month’s increase of 0.4%, while personal spending is expected to have increased 0.6% MOM in February compared to the prior month’s increase of 0.4%. The PCE deflator for February is expected to have risen 0.4% MOM, accelerating from the prior month’s 0.3%, but remained steady at 2.8% year-over-year (YOY). Meanwhile, the core PCE deflator for February is expected to have increased 0.4% MOM, similar to the prior month, and decelerated to 3.0% YOY from the prior month’s 3.1%. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 are expected to come in at 210,000, higher than the prior week’s 202,000, while continuing claims are expected to come in at 1.83 million for the week ending March 28, slightly down from the prior week’s 1.84 million. The third readings of fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), the GDP Price Index, the core PCE Price Index, and personal consumption are expected to come in at annualized growth rates of 0.7%, 3.8%, 2.7% and 2.0%, respectively, all unchanged from the prior estimates. The finalized February reading of wholesale inventories is expected to show a decrease of 0.1% MOM versus the preliminary reading of 0.5%, while February’s wholesale trade sales is expected to come in at 0.6% MOM versus the prior month’s increase of 0.5%.
Across the pond, European stocks are lower in mid-day trading as Germany’s trade surplus narrowed less than expected in February following greater-than-expected increases in both exports and imports. The country’s industrial production unexpectedly declined in February, falling 0.3% MOM.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly lower as Japan’s consumer confidence fell more than expected in March. The country’s machine tool orders increased by 28.1% YOY preliminarily in March. Meanwhile, China’s foreign reserves expanded in March.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is slightly lower as investors await today’s U.S. PCE deflator data for February and tomorrow’s March Consumer Price Index.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 5.1% higher at $99.26/barrel, partially retracing yesterday’s ceasefire-optimism declines.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.5% higher at $4,744.02/ounce following a weakening U.S. dollar.