Opening Comment — Thursday, October 15, 2026
DJIA: 51,621.48, down 48.62
S&P 500: 7,718.94, down 86.51
NASDAQ: 26,692.87, down 511.51
Stocks mixed ahead of PPI data
Stock futures are mixed Thursday morning as investors await today’s September Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales reports, fresh unemployment claims data, and comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh. Investors are also digesting yesterday’s inflation data and earnings from several artificial intelligence (AI) companies. As of 7:20 AM ET, the Dow is rising 0.2%, while the S&P 500 is down 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 1.2% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were lower on Wednesday as the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 0.6% month-over-month (MOM) in September, in line with expectations, while rising more than expected to 3.7% year-over-year (YOY). The core CPI (which excludes food and energy) increased 0.3% MOM and 2.6% YOY in September, both above expectations. The Fed October Beige Book showed a modest increase in economic activity, continued upward price pressures, and a broadly steady labor market environment. The Dow was down 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.9%. The S&P 500 decreased 1.1% with eight of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Health Care sector was the top performer, rising 2.4%, while the Information Technology sector was the bottom performer, falling 2.6%.
On the data front, retail sales are expected to have risen 0.3% MOM in September versus the prior month’s downwardly revised increase of 1.1%, while retail sales excluding autos are forecasted to have risen 0.5% MOM versus the prior month’s downwardly revised increase of 1.3%. The New York Fed will release their October Empire State Manufacturing Survey, with the headline general business conditions index expected to come in at 12.0, up from the prior month’s 7.6. The Philadelphia Fed will release their October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, with the diffusion index of current general activity forecasted to fall to 28.0 from the prior month’s 37.8. Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10 are expected to come in at 200,000, higher than the prior week’s 197,000, while continuing claims are expected to come in at 1.709 million for the week ending October 3, down from the prior week’s 1.716 million. The headline PPI for September is expected to show price increases of 0.6% MOM and 5.4% YOY versus the prior month’s increases of 0.4% and 5.4%, respectively. The core PPI, which excludes volatile components like food and energy, is expected to show price increases of 0.3% MOM and 4.4% YOY versus the prior month’s increases of 0.2% and 4.6%, respectively. Business inventories are expected to have risen 0.4% MOM in August compared to the prior month’s increase of 0.8%. The Department of Energy’s measure of crude oil inventories is expected to have increased by 150,000 barrels for the week ending October 9 versus the prior week’s decrease of 3.186 million barrels.
Across the pond, European stocks are mixed in mid-day trading as the U.K.’s August gross domestic product (GDP) unexpectedly rose 0.1% MOM, while the three-month GDP measure rose more than anticipated to 0.7%, following upward revisions to the prior month’s reading. The country’s industrial production unexpectedly rose 0.8% MOM in August, while showing a stronger-than-forecasted increase of 1.6% YOY. The British Index of Services showed little change MOM in August, against expectations for a decline, while the three-month measure rose more than expected to 0.9%. The country’s visible trade deficit and overall trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in August. Separately, France’s finalized September CPI fell 0.3% MOM, as expected, and rose 3.1% YOY, above the preliminary reading of 3.0%. The eurozone’s industrial production declined 0.5% MOM and 1.1% YOY in August.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly lower following the global AI selloff. Japan’s core machine orders rose 5.2% MOM and 18.6% YOY in August, both exceeding expectations. The country’s finalized August industrial production was revised lower, decreasing 2.4% MOM and increasing 2.7% YOY, while capacity utilization fell 4.2% MOM. Meanwhile, Australia’s employment unexpectedly fell by 39,300 in September. The country’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.7% in September, following the prior month’s upwardly revised reading, while the participation rate declined to 66.8%.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is lower ahead of today’s U.S. PPI data release.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is little changed at $95.13/barrel and Brent crude oil is down 1.4% at $104.56/barrel.
In the metals complex, gold is 1.2% higher at $4,153.23/ounce following a weakening U.S. dollar.