Opening Comment — Monday, March 02, 2026
DJIA: 48,977.92, down 521.28
S&P 500: 6,878.88, down 29.98
NASDAQ: 22,668.21, down 210.17
Markets react to fighting in the Middle East
Stock futures are lower Monday morning following strikes over the weekend by the U.S. and Israel on military government targets in Iran. According to multiple media reports, casualties include Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top officials. Iran retaliated with strikes against Israel, U.S. military bases, and other local targets in nearby countries. Along with continuing to assess the scope and impact of the fighting, markets will be watching for today’s February manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data release from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Later in the week, investors will be looking toward February services PMIs on Wednesday and the February jobs report on Friday. As of 7:16 AM ET, the Dow and the S&P 500 Index are both decreasing 1.1%. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 1.4% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were lower on Friday as the headline and core Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed more than expected, rising by 0.5% and 0.8% month-over-month (MOM), respectively, while the year-over-year (YOY) growth came in at 2.9% and 3.6%, respectively. Construction spending in November decreased, falling 0.2% MOM. The Dow was down 1.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9%. The S&P 500 decreased 0.4% with two of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Health Care sector was the top performer, rising 1.8%, while the Information Technology sector was the bottom performer, falling 2.2%.
On the data front, the finalized reading of S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI for February is expected to come in at 51.4 versus the prior reading of 51.2. Meanwhile, ISM’s manufacturing PMI and the prices paid component for February are expected to come in at 51.5 and 60.0, respectively, versus the prior month’s readings of 52.6 and 59.0, respectively.
Across the pond, European stocks are lower in mid-day trading as February’s finalized manufacturing PMIs for Germany and France were revised slightly higher to 50.9 and 50.1, respectively, while the eurozone’s remained stable at 50.8, and the U.K.’s was revised lower to 51.7. Germany’s retail sales decreased by 0.9% MOM and increased 0.7% YOY in January. Meanwhile, the U.K.’s Nationwide House Price Index for February showed an increase of 0.3% MOM and a larger-than-expected increase of 1.0% YOY. The country’s mortgage approvals unexpectedly fell in January.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly lower as South Korea’s February trade surplus widened more than forecasted following a larger-than-expected increase in exports and a smaller-than-anticipated increase in imports. Australia’s Melbourne Institute inflation gauge recorded a decrease of 0.2% MOM and increased by 3.6% YOY in February. Meanwhile, Japan’s and Australia’s finalized February S&P Global manufacturing PMIs were revised slightly lower to 53.0 and 51.0, respectively.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is higher as markets react to this weekend’s events.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 6.5% higher at $71.38/barrel amid severe production and shipping disruptions.
In the metals complex, gold is 1.9% higher at $5,379.65/ounce despite a strengthening dollar.