Opening Comment — Friday, March 28, 2025
DJIA: 42,299.70, down 155.09
S&P 500: 5,693.31, down 18.89
NASDAQ: 17,804.03, down 94.99
Stocks lower ahead of inflation data
Stock futures are lower Friday morning as investors await today’s economic releases, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator and finalized consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan. As of 7:20 AM ET, the Dow and the S&P 500 Index are both decreasing 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 0.2% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were lower on Thursday as investors digested the latest updates on tariff policy. The final reading of fourth-quarter gross domestic product was revised slightly higher, while inflation measures were revised slightly lower. The Dow was down 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5%. The S&P 500 decreased 0.3% with eight of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Consumer Staples sector was the top performer, rising 1.0%, while the Energy sector was the bottom performer, falling 0.9%.
On the data front, personal income is expected to have increased 0.4% month-over-month (MOM) in February, slower than the prior month’s 0.9%, while personal spending is expected to have increased 0.5% MOM in February compared to the prior month’s decline of 0.2%. The PCE deflator for February is expected to have risen 0.3% MOM and 2.5% year-over-year (YOY), both similar to the prior month’s changes. Meanwhile, the core PCE deflator for February is expected to have increased 0.3% MOM, similar to the prior month’s change, but accelerated to 2.7% YOY from the prior month’s 2.6%. The finalized March reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is expected to come in at 57.9, while one-year and 5-10-year inflation expectations are projected to come in at 4.9% and 3.9%, unchanged from the prior readings. The Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Kansas City will release their services activity survey.
Across the pond, European stocks are mostly lower in mid-day trading as preliminary French Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in cooler than expected in March. Meanwhile, the U.K.’s retail sales unexpectedly rose in February and the country’s trade deficit narrowed materially in January.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly lower following the Tokyo CPI coming in hotter than expected for March.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is slightly higher ahead of today’s U.S. PCE deflator data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.2% lower at $69.78/barrel.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.6% higher at $3,079.20/ounce despite a strengthening dollar.